Tariffs are here: Should you upgrade your iPhone now or wait for the iPhone 17?

If you’ve been thinking about upgrading your iPhone, you’re facing a unique situation this year, one where trade policy might have more influence on your decision than Apple’s next product launch.

With new tariffs on Chinese imports now in effect, the cost to manufacture iPhones is expected to rise significantly, and that could soon trickle down to the price tag you see at checkout. At the same time, Apple is preparing to unveil the iPhone 17 lineup this September, reportedly featuring a fresh design, performance gains, and the ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air.

So the question is: buy now or wait?

Tariffs Could Push iPhones to Luxury-Level Prices

Thanks to a 54% import tariff on goods from China, where nearly all iPhones are assembled, experts predict a sharp cost increase for Apple. Analyst Wayne Lam told The Wall Street Journal he estimates the parts cost for an iPhone 16 Pro (256GB) will jump from $550 to $820.

If Apple chooses to pass those increases on to customers, the base iPhone 16, which currently starts at $799, could soar to around $1,500. The premium iPhone 16 Pro Max could climb from $1,599 to a staggering $2,300. That’s a potential difference of hundreds of dollars between buying now and buying just weeks or months from now.

iPhone 17: A Tempting Upgrade—At a Potentially Higher Price

Normally, waiting for Apple’s September event makes sense. The iPhone 17 is expected to bring one of the biggest design changes in years, with improvements to battery life, performance, and camera quality. The rumored iPhone 17 Air is said to be Apple’s thinnest iPhone ever, measuring just 5.5mm at its thinnest point.

But if the new iPhones also fall under the same tariff conditions, and Apple doesn’t secure exemptions or shift manufacturing fast enough, those shiny upgrades could come with significantly higher prices.

Apple’s Strategy and Uncertainty Ahead

Apple has been working to avoid immediate fallout by stockpiling iPhones in the U.S. and diversifying production to countries like India and Vietnam. However, moving full-scale assembly out of China isn’t something that happens overnight. While Apple managed to secure tariff exemptions during Trump’s first term, there are no guarantees this time around.

President Trump said he believes Apple could start assembling iPhones in the U.S., but doing so would massively raise labor costs. Lam noted that U.S. assembly alone could push the cost per unit from around $30 to over $300, not including imported parts, which would still be subject to tariffs.

So… Should You Buy Now or Wait?

If your current phone is still doing the job and you’re eager for the latest design, waiting for the iPhone 17 might be worth it, if you’re prepared for potentially much higher prices.

But if you’re on the edge of needing a new iPhone and want to avoid paying more just to get a similar model later, now might be the smart time to buy. Apple’s current inventory likely reflects pre-tariff pricing, but that buffer won’t last forever.

Final Thoughts

In a typical year, the advice is simple: wait until September. This year, that advice flips for many. With iPhone 17 prices likely to reflect increased production costs and no sign of tariff relief in sight but buying now could save you hundreds.It might not come with Apple’s newest tech, but it could come with peace of mind.